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2016 Fantasy Football

 

For the 2016  Fantasy Football season we improved the predictive algorithms over last season.  Critical factors that came into consideration for the overall value system included switching offensive coordinators/system, changes in supporting cast and performance drop due to age, injury or other factors such as suspension.  We categorized the player projections into five tiers:

  1. ELITE:  Performers with exceptional Fantasy track record and/or potential
  2. SOLID:  Dependable players presenting good value with upside potential
  3. AVERAGE:  Average QBs without the track record or talent to make to the next level
  4. POOR:  Mediocre or has-been players assured to deliver pedestrian results
  5. AVOID:  These guys are  painful to watch – avoid them​


Check out our rankings and player point projections for 2016:


STANDARD LEAGUE RULES


The standard league rules allows for a 16-player roster with 9 active players and 7 reserve bench players.  Every week the team manager activates 9 players including :  1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 wide receivers,1 tight end, 1 optional RB/WR/TE,  1 place kicker and 1 Team Defense/Special Teams.


STRATEGY - ROSTER SPOTS


For the 16-man roster in Standard League Rules, we recommend the following roster spot breakdown by position:

  • 2 QBs - average value 17.9:  QBs offer the highest value in FF - you need a top tier QB to win your league.  There is no need to carry more than 2 QBs as you can pick up a mid-tier QB if injury strikes that will give you 17 points/game.
  • 4 RBs - average value 10.0:  After the QB, RBs are the most valuable commodity in FF since they tend to score more TDs than WRs
  • 4 WRs - average value 9.9:  Even though their average value is about the same as RBs, 10.0 vs. 9.9 points/game, wide receivers offer lower peak performance -- the elite RB will deliver 16-17 points vs. 14-15 for a WR
  • 2 TEs - average value 7.6: Unless you own Gronk, tight ends present poor value for roster spots as compared to RBs and WRs - do not play a TE for the weekly optional roster spot
  • 2 Ks - average value 8.3:  There's very little difference between a really good kicker and an average kicker (less than 2 points)… don't stress too much about this pick
  • 2 Defense/Special Teams (DST) - average value 8.0:  Save this pick for last… this one is a crap shoot due to the randomness of defensive and special team scores.  Pick a good defensive team and hope for the best.


​* Alternatively, you can cut back on the PK and DST to 1 each then make a trade if injury strikes or the week that you kicker/team has a bye.  This gives you more option to pick a 5th RB and/or WR, which will give you flexibility come time to choose the optional player every week.


STRATEGY - PLAYER DRAFT

Here is the optimal draft strategy by position and player value for each round:

  1. QB:  Take a QB in the first round unless you are picking late in th draft and there's a RB available with higher value
  2. RB:  If you skipped QB in the first round pick one now, otherwise take a RB in the 2nd round unless there's a WR available with a higher value
  3. RB:  Take a RB in the third round unless there's a WR available with a higher value
  4. WR:  Take a WR in the fourth round unless you picked a WR in a earlier round then take the highest RB on the board
  5. WR:  Take a WR in the fifth round unless you already picked two WRs in a earlier rounds then take the highest RB on the board
  6. QB:  This is a good time to pick a quality back-up QB
  7. RB/WR:  Take the highest available RB/WR
  8. RB/WR:  Take the highest available RB/WR/TE on the board until your recommended quota for spot positions are filled
  9. RB/WR:  Take the highest available RB/WR/TE on the board until your recommended quota for spot positions are filled
  10. PK:  Now the value is good for a place kicker
  11. TE:  TE is the worst value player position in FF even below the kicker
  12. RB/WR/TE:  Take the highest available RB/WR/TE on the board until your recommended quota for spot positions are filled
  13. RB/WR/TE:  Take the highest available RB/WR/TE on the board until your recommended quota for spot positions are filled
  14. PK:  Take the highest available kicker on the board as your back up
  15. D/ST:  Take the highest value DST on the board... let your competitors make the mistake of taking good defenses
  16. D/ST:  Take the highest value DST on the board as your backup


DO and DON'Ts

  • Do - rounds 12 to 16 are the time to take calculated risks on sleeper or high-value second stringers in case of injury
  • Do - pick up a quality QB backup no later than the 6th round
  • Don't - do not take Gronk too early... his projected value rates him as the 61st best player on the board this year
  • Don't - do not pick a kicker too early -- even the best kickers rate a 10th round value at best
  • Don't - do not  pick a Defense/Special Team before the last two round... you will cost yourself a higher value player at another position


PLAYER VALUE FORECAST SUMMARY


The full summary for the Fantasy Football projected player value can be found here.  We placed asterisks for leagues with 6, 8 and 10 teams as an example of drafting value order.  Here's the way the overall "Pick Priority" works -- start at the top of the list and scratch out the players that are not available (drafted already).  When it's your turn to draft, take the highest player on the board (following the position and player draft strategy) with an asterisk by his name depending on the number of teams in your league.  Before you take any player, do a quick Google search to make sure that the player you are about to pick was not cut  at the last minute or injured.  If you have more than 10 teams in your league, then just go down the list in order disregarding the asterisks.  


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