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​​2016 Fantasy Football Projections - Quarterbacks


Standard Fantasy Leagues point systems score the quarterbacks value based on total points (passing and rushing TD's) plus total yardage (passing and rushing yards) minus turnovers (interceptions and fumbles lost).  This is a synopsis of the 32 starters.  For a full list and value projections see the 2016 FF Summary.


ELITE

  • Russell Wilson, SEA (21.1):  Russell combines great passing skill with great running ability.  Even though he's undersized, so far he has been durable.  This year the top spot is a toss up between Russell and Cam.
  • Cam Newton, CAR (21.1):  Even though he's not a great passer due to poor accuracy, Cam got the turnovers under control last year.  His running skills are the best since Michael Vick and really boost his FF value.  If he can keep the turnovers under double digits this coming year like last, he will lead the FF QBs again.
  • Andrew Luck, IND (19.7):  Plagued by shoulder injuries all year, Luck looks to return to his 2014 form as he still provides elite value.
  • Aaron Rodgers, GNB (19.5):  The typical #1 pick on the FF QB lineup, he had an off year in 2015 when his receiving corps were decimated.  Expect a bounce back year from Aaron.
  • Drew Brees, NOR (19.0):  Even at his advanced age, 37, Drew still brings it.  He's durable and continues to perform in Sean Payton's offense.  Old Man Time catches up to QB's in a hurry, though, (see Marino, Favre and Peyton) so this might be his last hurrah in the elite bucket.


SOLID

  • Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (18.4):  Although Roesthlisberger has never produced great FF numbers, he provides solid value.  Injuries slowed down Big Ben in 2015 but expect a return to his usual performance metrics especially with his supporting cast (Le'Veon and Antonio)
  • Tom Brady, NWE (18.2):  Brady over-performed last year given his advanced age (39).  He also has avoided the injury bug since 2007.  Add a 4-game suspension and he's a risky pick this year which drops him from the elite category.  
  • Blake Bortles, JAX (17.9):  With only two seasons under his belt, Bortles' sample size is small.  He took a strong step forward last year into the good category.  Look for him to continue to trend upward this year even if playing in the dumpster fire that has become Jacksonville for the last several years.
  • Philip Rivers, SDG (17.6):  A perennial FF stud, you can count on Rivers to give you a solid ROI.
  • Tony Romo, DAL - 17.6:  Injuries derailed Romo's 2015.  He'll bounce back and regain his usual form, delivering solid value.
  • Carson Palmer, ARI (17.5):  The warm weather in Arizona has done Carson well as shown by his resurgence the last three years.  Expect another solid season from him but 37 years old his window is closing fast.
  • Andy Dalton, CIN (17.2):  Dalton took a step forward last year and with another solid campaign, he might be ready to move into the elite category next year.


AVERAGE

  • Derek Carr, RAI (16.8):  Everything points to Derek Carr's continuing improvement.  We'll find out if last year was a fluke or if he's ready for prime time.
  • Matthew Stafford, DET (16.7):  While Stafford usually provides solid value in FF, expect his performance to drop off  with Megatron's retirement.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ (16.6):  Fitzpatrick had a career year with the Jets in 2015.  Don't expect a repeat performance for a career journeyman with numerous stops.
  • Ryan Tannehill, MIA (16.4):  Ryan has made incremental improvements in his first four years but continues to define slightly above average performance.  Dolphins hope that new coach, Adam Gase, will jump start his career but he'll have to learn yet another offensive system.
  • Alex Smith, KAN (16.3):  Pencil steady Alex for another ho-hum above average campaign.
  • Eli Manning, NYG (16.2):  Expect Eli to improve in his third year in the same offensive system.  It helps  that he tosses the ball to phenomenal talents in Odell Beckham Jr and Victor Cruz (if he can recover his pre-injury form from 2013).
  • Jameis Winston, TAM (16.2):  Jamais got off to rough start in 2015 but came on later in the year.  Head coach Dick Koetter should be able to manage his growth and get him to the next level.
  • Matt Ryan, ATL (16.0):  After several promising seasons, Matt has gotten into a rut.  Maybe he can regain his magic again but don't count on it
    Joe Flacco, BAL (15.9): 

  • Average Joe baffles by under-performing in the regular season as compared to his off-the-charts postseason stats.  He'll deliver a handful of great games followed by a just as many stinkers.
  • Jay Cutler, CHI (15.9):  It's time too stop expecting more from Jay.  He is what he is -- a supremely talented and wildly inconsistent under-performing QB.
    Marcus Mariota, TEN (15.9):  Mariota had a season of hard knocks coming out with his head above water.  Season two for Marcus should provide more improvement.


POOR

  • Blaine Gabbert, SFO (15.8):  Gabbert earned the starter spot by default - we'll see if Chip Kelly can work some of his first year magic on Blaine as he did with Nick Foles in Philly.
  • Kirk Cousins, WAS (15.7):  Cousins won the job from RGIII straight up last year and should continue to improve under Jay Gruden.
  • Sam Bradford, PHI (14.9):  Bradford had yet another mediocre season even under offensive genius Chip Kelly.  Expect him to regress without Chip and for the fans to turn on him quickly -- this has the all the ingredients of a really long and ugly season for Sam in the City of Brotherly Love.
  • Tyrod Taylor, BUF (14.3):  The Bills signed Tyrod to a $90 million 5-year deal this off-season.  They must see something nobody else sees, which follows the pattern of self-destruction of head coach Rex Ryan from his tenure in The Big Apple.


AVOID

  • Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (13.7):  Bridgewater failed to improve in his sophomore season.  Season three is a make or break year for him which bodes well for A.D Peterson to carry more of the load.
  • Trevor Siemian, DEN (13.5):  Sanchez was the worst rated starting QB with more than 5 years experience, which doesn't say much about Siemian beating him out.
  • Case Keenum, RAM (12.1):  Keenum will start a few games then turn the reigns over to the future of the Rams franchise Jared Goff.
  • Brock Osweiler, HOU (10.4):  Brock's performance in Denver last year failed to impress Elway enough to keep him.  Houston overpaid and will find out why the hard way this year.
  • Robert Griffin III, CLE (9.7):  RGIII never made onto the field in 2015.  Maybe a geographical fix will jump start his career but Cleveland is a tough place to start even with new coach Hue Jackson.