a smart blend of sports analytics and story telling
2016 Fantasy Football Projections - Kickers
Standard Fantasy Leagues point systems score the place kickers value by total points (field goal and extra point attempts made) minus missed field goals. The place kicker FF scoring is highly correlated to the overall offensive scoring of the team which is more important than his accuracy. The average kicker in 2016 made 85% of his kicks so what matters more is the opportunities he gets by the offense putting him in position to convert points. It's no surprise that the top offensive teams in the league (New England, Carolina, Arizona) yielded the top kickers. This is a synopsis of the 32 starters. For a full list and value projections see the 2016 FF Summary.
- Stephen Gostkowski, NWE (9.6): Gostkowski is the best kicker in the best offense in the NFL and hence why Bellichick gave him an unreal contract last year.
- Chandler Catanzaro, ARI (8.8): Catanzaro has upside value in the Cardinals offensive machine tied to Carson Palmer's elite play.
- Steve Hauschka, SEA (8.3): There's hidden value in playing in Seattle... they are continually sneaky good on offense ranking in the top 10 the last four years
- Chris Boswell, PIT (8.1): Pittsburgh's offense should bounce back with a healthy Big Ben dragging their kicker into the elite pack.
- Cairo Santos, KAN (8.0): Steady Alex and KC will not lead the league in scoring TDs which will present more scoring opportunities to Santos.
- Brandon McManus, DEN (8.0): The Denver offense looks in disarray with no apparent heir to Peyton… this bodes well for McManus in an offense that won't make it into the red zone often.
- Josh Brown, NYG (8.0): Josh will benefit from a Giant bounce back year… or so we have been saying for the last three years.
- Adam Vinatieri, IND (8.0): Like a fine wine, Vinatieri keeps getting better… yet another Colts player benefiting from a little Luck.
- Graham Gano, CAR (7.9): The unexpected #1 offense in the NFL last year carried Gano into the elite bucket last year. The Panthers won't catch anyone by surprise this year but Graham will still draw a solid rating.
- Nick Folk, NYJ (7.8): The Jets over-performed last year with a career year from Fitzgerald carrying Folk into the solid bucket. Expect more of the same with a team on the rise.
- Justin Tucker, BAL (7.7): One of the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL, Tucker was dragged down by an uncharastericaly inept Ravens offense last year. They should do better this year. Maybe.
- Dan Bailey, DAL (7.5): The worst case scenario just materialized in D with Romo going down in preseason indefinately. This affects everyone including All-World kicker Bailey.
- Mason Crosby, GNB (7.4): Crosby will bounce back this year behind an offense that was derailed with injuries last year. There's plenty of upside to this pick in an team with the best QB in the game.
- Matt Prater, DET (7.4): This offense will stagnate this year faster than you can say Megatron retired. Prater is a meh pick.
- Dustin Hopkins, was (7.3): Hopkins provides good value in a offense and QB on the rise in DC.
- Blair Walsh, MIN (7.2): It's a crap shoot taking Walsh after the missed FG that would have propelled the Vikes into the second round last year. Kickers that miss high profile kicks don't seem to last long in the NFL.
- Roberto Aguayo, TAM (7.2): Off to a terrible start in camp and with tons of pressure from getting picked in the 2nd round, expect an average rookie season -- stay away from Aguayo this year
- Dan Carpenter, BUF (7.1): The Bills should improve on offense this year then implode next under Rex -- Carpenter could overperform into the solid category this year with an offense that won't score many TDs.
- Caleb Sturgis, PHI (7.0): Caleb performed spectacularly average in a mediocre offense in MIA last year. New place for Sturgis but nothing changes for him in another down year for the Eagles.
- Jason Myers, JAX (7.0): Surprisingly poor performer in a Jacksonville rising offense.
- Mike Nugent, CIN (6.9): Maybe his brother Ted can play guitar at halftime to ease the postseason pain that is Cincy
- Matt Bryant, ATL (6.9): Down year all around for Atlanta -- expect more of the same this year as QB Ryan has lost his way.
- Nick Novak, HOU (6.8): Can JJ Watts kick FGs? Pass on this pick.
- Travis Coons, CLE (6.8): The Browns are still a couple of players away from success... Jim Brown and Dick Butkus
- Robbie Gould, CHI (6.7): Wildly inconsistent QB play wreaks havoc on Bears. Pass on Gould.
- Josh Lambo, SDG (6.7): You'd think the kicker in SD would benefit from Phillip Rivers and his FF success.
- Phil Dawson, SFO (6.5): Can Chip Kelly jump start the worst offense in the NFL? Not without a QB. Dawson would do well if he could kick 70-yard FGs.
- Greg Zuerlein, RAM (6.1): 7-9 again? Looks like it and Zuerlein will suffer for it.
- Kai Forbath, NOR (5.9): Kai's performance has dropped every year including an awful 2015 when he was traded mid-season to NO. Risky pick in a great offense.
- Andrew Franks, MIA (5.9): Newcomer to Miami, Franks should benefit from an improved offensive year for the fins under new Head Coach Adams... good risk reward in a sleeper pick this year.
- Sebastian Janikowski, RAI (5.4): Two biggest riddles in the world -- how is Trump the Republican nominnee and how is erratic wild man Janikowski still employed in the NFL?
- Ryan Succop, TEN (5.4): Offense and kicking should improve with 2nd year QB Mariota and RB DeMarco Murray. If Succop doesn't perform this year he might be out of a job.